Pushing west Russian forces breach Ukrainian defenses in the Dnipropetrovsk region, raising the risk of a deeper advance
Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.
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Key updates as of July 3, 2025
The Ukrainian command has managed to stabilize the front in the Sumy region and east of Pokrovsk, but in southern Donbas, the defensive lines have once again been breached. The Russian army has seized the territory between the Vovcha and Mokri Yaly rivers and is now advancing toward a key Ukrainian stronghold — the town of Novopavlivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region. If the town falls, Russian forces will gain the ability to push north, bypassing Pokrovsk, and west, deeper into the Dnipropetrovsk region.
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Southern Donbas
After capturing Velyka Novosilka in late January, Russian forces launched an offensive northward from the former Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) stronghold, advancing along both banks of the Mokri Yaly River. At the same time, another Russian group pushed west along the Vovcha River toward its confluence with the Mokri Yaly. Over the course of nearly six months, each group advanced only about 15 kilometers (about nine miles) amid heavy fighting. But as Russian troops closed in on their target — the junction of the two rivers — from both directions, Ukraine’s defenses entered a serious crisis.
In June, the “Vostok” contingent, formed from forces of Russia’s Eastern Military District, broke through along the Mokri Yaly, pushing north through the village of Komar to the confluence with the Vovcha and seizing several settlements along the Vovcha’s southern bank.
Meanwhile, units from the “Tsentr” contingent, advancing from the direction of Kurakhove, captured the villages of Oleksiivka, Novoukrainka, and Dachne on the northern bank of the Vovcha. Dachne is the first settlement in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region to fall under Russian occupation.
This advance forced the AFU to retreat from the area between the rivers toward the town of Novopavlivka to avoid encirclement. Their defense was further complicated by the limited number of crossings over the Vovcha, as Russian airstrikes regularly targeted bridges and pontoon crossings built by Ukrainian troops.
Russian forces now threaten to reach Novopavlivka, a key stronghold that supports the entire Ukrainian defense south of Pokrovsk. In the long term, Russian troops could press toward the Dnipro–Pokrovsk highway, potentially cutting off Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region from the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kostiantynivka
Russia’s offensive between Pokrovsk and Toretsk has slowed due to the redeployment of Ukrainian reserves to this sector, including units transferred from the Sumy region. In turn, AFU forces were pulled from the area around Velyka Novosilka to reinforce the regional center, Sumy, contributing to the collapse of Ukrainian defenses in the area between the Vovcha and Mokri Yaly rivers.
Despite the slowdown, Russian troops continue to widen their incursion north of the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka highway. East of Pokrovsk, they’ve reached the Kazennyi Torets River near the settlement of Novoekonomichne and are trying to break through to the Pokrovsk–Druzhkivka road, which links the Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk sectors.
Farther east, Russian forces have become bogged down in battles for Yablunivka, along the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka road, and for Oleksandro-Kalynove, near the western edge of the Kleban-Bykske Reservoir. If Russian troops reach the reservoir, it would cut off Ukrainian units defending the western outskirts of Toretsk.
Another Russian group is pushing toward the eastern end of the reservoir from Toretsk itself. These forces have captured a key Ukrainian fortified position — the Saint Matrona Mine — which had previously blocked Russia’s advance toward the reservoir. Russian troops also launched a direct assault from the east on Ukraine’s main defensive stronghold on Toretsk’s western edge.
In the coming days, it’s likely that Ukrainian forces — mostly National Guard units, which form the core of the local defense — will be forced to withdraw from Toretsk and fall back to the northern shore of the reservoir, toward Kostiantynivka.
Sumy region
Ukrainian forces have managed to slow the Russian advance north of the city of Sumy. The offensive initially made rapid progress, as some Ukrainian brigades — previously withdrawn from Russia’s Kursk region with heavy losses — were either sent to rest or redeployed to the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka highway, where Russian troops had just broken through. When Russian forces pushed seven to eight kilometers (about five miles) into Ukrainian territory near Sumy, the Ukrainian command was forced to send reserves to reinforce this front.
Intense fighting is ongoing near Oleksiivka and Andriivka in the central section of the Sumy front. Farther east, in the village of Yunakivka, Ukrainian troops have managed to hold positions along the Sumy–Sudzha road.
It appears that Russian forces are preparing a new offensive aimed at cutting the Sumy–Sudzha road west of Yunakivka, in an effort to force Ukrainian troops to retreat into the city of Sumy itself.
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Meduza’s Razbor (“Explainers”) team