Schrödinger’s Kadyrov Why Chechnya’s leader keeps saying he’ll resign, but never does
Each time Chechnya’s longtime ruler, Ramzan Kadyrov, disappears from the public eye, it fuels fresh speculation about whether he's still capable of leading the republic. A recent public call to “pray for Ramzan,” made by the region’s deputy information minister, was instantly interpreted as a veiled reference to the Chechen leader’s declining health. At the same time, Kadyrov himself continues to float the idea of stepping down — though this familiar refrain has always ended with him staying in power. RFE/RL’s Kavkaz.Realii investigated why, amid mounting rumors, Kadyrov keeps returning to the subject of his resignation. Meduza shares an abridged translation of the outlet’s reporting.
In early May 2025, Ramzan Kadyrov surprised many by publicly expressing a desire to step down. He clarified that the final decision rested with the “supreme commander-in-chief,” and that as a “man of the command,” the Chechen leader could only “request or suggest” his resignation.
Kadyrov’s comments — and a subsequent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin — came shortly after Novaya Gazeta Europe published an investigation claiming that his worsening health had “accelerated the scenario of a power transition in Chechnya.”
Following the flurry of discussion prompted by Kadyrov’s remarks, he insisted that some people had misunderstood his words — and announced an upcoming meeting with Putin in Moscow. It might have all seemed like a clumsy attempt at provocation from Grozny — if not for the fact that, just before the meeting, Kadyrov reiterated that he was awaiting Putin’s decision on whether to accept his resignation.
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The May 7 visit to Moscow was officially framed as a working meeting focused on the war in Ukraine. But in the official footage, Kadyrov appears visibly anxious. As he reads from a prewritten statement — printed in large font across multiple pages — his hands tremble and his voice shakes. After the meeting, he said that the Russian president had rejected his resignation.
“Vladimir [Putin], commenting on the recent speculation online, once again quoted the famous words of Mark Twain: ‘Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.’ He added that we still have much work ahead of us. I follow the orders of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief!” Kadyrov wrote afterward.
Kadyrov’s May meeting with Putin ended like all his previous “attempts” to step down — with nothing changing. According to Kavkaz.Realii, Chechnya’s leader has publicly floated the idea of resigning at least six times since 2015. The last instance came in September 2022, when he said he had overstayed his post and deserved “an indefinite, extended vacation.”
(Not) keeping up appearances
According to a doctor at one of Grozny’s clinics, who spoke with Kavkaz.Realii on condition of anonymity for security reasons, Kadyrov appears to be a different person than he was just a year ago.
The once-heavier leader has given way to a gaunt, pale figure. No one rushes to embrace him anymore — people keep their distance and mostly greet him with symbolic gestures, no longer wrapping an arm around his torso. The doctor suggested that this shift in behavior could point to an illness affecting the area between his chest and waist.
It’s hard to miss how drastically Kadyrov’s public presence has declined. These days, his appearances are rare and largely ceremonial — limited to staged visits to construction sites, where he sits in the passenger seat and occasionally offers brief comments. Gone are the days of choreographed wrestling matches with MMA fighters or appearances at religious events.
A source in Chechnya, also speaking to Kavkaz.Realii on condition of anonymity, said Kadyrov now relies on crutches when off camera and in private. He is reportedly consumed by concerns about his health and insists on being treated by European doctors, who are flown to Dubai for examinations.
According to this source, Kadyrov has begun pushing his inner circle to shift their loyalty and attention toward his eldest son, Akhmat. However, the rapid promotion and recent marriage of his 17-year-old son Adam has prompted speculation that Kadyrov may be preparing his third son as his successor.
Loyalty theater
Ramzan Kadyrov’s repeated and theatrical appeals to resign are widely seen as “signals of loyalty to his overlord,” a political scientist at a Chechen university told Kavkaz.Realii. Through these gestures, the Chechen leader is essentially conveying that he will unquestioningly accept whatever decision Vladimir Putin makes about his future.
“This kind of absolute personal loyalty is one of the reasons why, despite Kadyrov’s visibly deteriorating health, he remains in power,” the expert said.
Regardless of how physically capable he is, Kadyrov’s continued rule serves as a real guarantee of maintaining the status quo in Chechnya — something I believe Vladimir Putin understands well. As long as Ramzan Kadyrov formally holds the post, no one will dare challenge him or sabotage Moscow’s policies as carried out through him. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is using this time to prepare for a power transition when the moment many are waiting for finally comes.
Frequent talk of resignation is a common tactic in authoritarian regimes, noted Marat Ilyasov, a visiting scholar at George Washington University. “It’s often a way to emphasize their importance — to show they’re indispensable, irreplaceable,” he explained.
[Kadyrov] wants to demonstrate that he’s essential to the job, to governing the republic, to the broader Russian leadership. He’s not exactly threatening Russia, but rather signaling: look, I’ll resign if you don’t appreciate me — and that gets people talking about how important he is.
This desire for affirmation, Ilyasov said, stems from the fact that, in theory, any authoritarian leader can be swapped out for someone else — someone who could learn the job and rule just as autocratically. “The truth is, most authoritarian rulers aren’t particularly qualified, and Kadyrov is no exception. Everyone knows his qualifications,” Ilyasov said. “So by reminding his superiors that he might step aside, he’s emphasizing his own value and legitimacy.”
