‘The situation is difficult and fluid’ What we know about Russia’s reported breakthrough in Ukraine’s Donetsk region
On Monday, the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState reported that Russian forces had broken through defensive lines near the city of Dobropillia in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, advancing toward the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Independent analysts caution that there’s still no visual confirmation of the most expansive claims, but if confirmed, the breach would mark one of Russia’s largest advances in months. Still, Russia has yet to consolidate its gains or establish a foothold in the area, and some analysts say it’s unlikely the current push will develop into an operational-level breakthrough anytime soon. Here’s what we know so far about the breach.
On August 11, DeepState reported that Russian forces had advanced eight to 10 kilometers (five to six miles) north of Pokrovsk, reaching the villages of Kucheriv Yar and Zolotyi Kolodyaz, where they’re amassing troops for further attacks. From Kucheriv Yar, they moved toward the nearby village of Vesele, where, as of August 20, there were about 20 Russian soldiers, the OSINT project said.
According to DeepState, which has close ties to Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, the Russian army is also attempting to establish positions near the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk highway, concentrating around the villages of Novovodyane and Petrivka.
DeepState said Russian troops had “probed for weak spots to advance further” and were working to quickly entrench and build up their forces for a continued push. It added that Ukrainian commanders “either do not grasp the full depth of the problem or are presenting the situation as ‘under control.’”
According to the OSINT group, Ukrainian forces have built new fortifications around Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Shakhove, and nearby settlements — positions that Russian troops are “calmly bypassing, and will later occupy and use for their own defense.” If Russia fully captures Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Kucheriv Yar, Vesele, and other nearby villages, Ukraine “could face a situation where Dobropillia falls faster than Pokrovsk,” DeepState warned.
That same day, Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, said the situation north of Pokrovsk was “deteriorating rapidly.” According to him, Russian troops pushed roughly 17 kilometers (10 miles) past Ukrainian defensive lines from August 9–11. “Forwardmost Russian units have reportedly reached the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk road T0514 and Russian infiltration groups have also been reported near Dobropillia proper,” Paroinen wrote on X.
In late July, Ukrainska Pravda reported that Russian forces advanced more than 10 kilometers (about six miles) along the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka highway since May, creating the threat of encirclement for the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration. According to the news outlet, Russia’s expansion toward Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Novovodyane “effectively means the final loss of that road,” which was considered Pokrovsk’s main supply line. The route was closed to civilians in June due to Russian drone strikes.
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Reactions in Ukraine
Ukraine’s “Dnipro” operational strategic group said that despite taking losses, Russian forces are using their numerical advantage and “trying to infiltrate in small groups past the first line of Ukrainian positions.” However, Russian troops do not control the territory, the group said. Describing the situation as difficult, “Dnipro” said that the fiercest fighting anywhere on the front is taking place near Dobropillia and Pokrovsk, adding that Ukrainian troops are “destroying” Russian units.
On August 12, Ukraine’s General Staff said in a statement that its forces are “taking effective measures” to halt Russia’s advance in the Dobropillia and Pokrovsk sectors.
Our units are engaged in heavy defensive fighting against superior enemy forces. In the Pokrovsk sector alone, the occupiers have concentrated a grouping of more than 110,000 personnel. […] The situation is difficult and fluid, but the Defense Forces are taking all necessary measures to identify and destroy hostile groups.
The statement also said that reinforcements have been sent to the area.
Fighters from the Azov Brigade recently took over a section of the defensive line on the Pokrovsk front near Dobropillia and the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk highway, Ukrainska Pravda reported on August 12. Azov said its forces had blocked Russian troops “in a certain area.” The sector was previously under the responsibility of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ “Pokrovsk” tactical group, which, according to military personnel who spoke to Ukrainska Pravda, “was absolutely failing to defend this part of the front.”
Bohdan Krotevych, Azov’s former chief of staff, said in an appeal to President Volodymyr Zelensky that the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka line is “without exaggeration, an absolute clusterfuck,” and that the situation is worsening by the day. “There is, in effect, no fixed line of contact,” Krotevych said. He added that Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are nearly encircled, Kostiantynivka is “half-encircled,” and Russian forces are advancing toward Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka.
Taras Chmut, the head of Come Back Alive, a charity that supports Ukrainian military personnel, warned that the situation in Ukraine’s Donetsk region could allow Russian armored groups to break into the Ukrainian rear. “And the map will start to ‘shift’ again, as it did in 2022 — by dozens, hundreds of square kilometers a day,” he said.
X user Tatarigami_UA, who describes himself as a Ukrainian reserve officer, argued that “the current situation is serious, but far from the collapse some suggest.” He noted that “in both 2014 and 2015, Russia launched major offensives ahead of negotiations to gain leverage.”
Reactions in Russia
Russian pro-war Telegram channels claim that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have infiltrated the area around Dobropillia. “Our forward units are indeed advancing in that direction, but it’s still difficult to judge the real scale or the forces the Russian army has committed to the push,” said the channel Two Majors.
The Rybar channel, which has ties to Russia’s Defense Ministry, said it is too early to claim that Russian forces have secured positions near Dobropillia. “Until we see imagery from objective control systems, it’s hard to talk about a full-scale breakthrough,” its authors noted.
Pro-Kremlin political analyst Sergey Markov said Russian troops were able to break through because of “a partial collapse of the Ukrainian front due to a shortage of troops.” “The advance is a gift to Putin and Trump ahead of negotiations and says that Zelensky and Europe must hand over all of Donbas as a territorial exchange — otherwise the Russian army will take it by force,” Markov said.
The potential consequences
Russian forces are unlikely to turn their tactical gains around Dobropillia into an operational-level breakthrough in the near term, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote. According to the ISW, Russian troops have so far been unable to bring in reinforcements to fortify territory seized during the advance — and will likely face serious Ukrainian resistance if they try. Ukraine’s General Staff has already announced that commanders have sent additional forces to the area.
So far, small sabotage and reconnaissance units have carried out the advance in the Dobropillia sector, analysts noted. These groups have pushed into Ukraine’s rear, probing for weak points in its defenses before trying to build up forces and attack in an effort to gain a foothold. The push near Dobropillia went farther and faster than usual, but “Russia’s ability to mature these tactical advances into an operational-level breakthrough in the near future is not certain.”
The ISW said that what might appear to be a sudden Russian advance in fact followed months of preparation which came at “significant resource expenditures” for Russia. The Wall Street Journal, citing an Azov Brigade officer serving in the area, reported that Russian troops found a weak spot in Ukrainian lines after several weeks of probing attacks and used large manpower reserves to break through.
In a thread on X, Michael Kofman, a military analyst and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, described the advance as “a symptom of challenges and problems” facing Ukraine’s military — namely undermanned units and the absence of continuous defensive lines.
At the same time, Kofman noted that while the defensive line clearly appears breached when looking at a map, in practice this means little, as “this is not a war of trenches held by infantry, but of well masked positions for vehicles and small groups of infantry with large gaps in between.” He said the situation for Ukrainian forces could worsen given the current Russian advance, but it is still too early to draw any conclusions.
The ISW also pointed out that many prominent Russian pro-war bloggers — who often “over-inflate Russian advances” — have been more reserved this time, saying that it is too soon to speak of a full-scale breakthrough, as Russian forces have yet to consolidate their positions.
