Zapad-2025 Russia and Belarus begin military exercises near NATO borders, including simulated nuclear strike planning
The Belarusian and Russian militaries begin a new set of scheduled joint exercises on Friday known as Zapad-2025 (“West 2025”). The last time drills in these series were held was in the fall of 2021, when they marked the start of a large-scale Russian troop buildup along Russia’s western border. That was followed by their joint Allied Resolve exercises in February 2022, immediately after which Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Moscow and Minsk have not officially disclosed the total number of troops participating in this round of exercises. However, Zapad-2025 is expected to be smaller in scale than previous iterations, as Russia’s main combat units remain engaged in the war in Ukraine.
According to Lithuanian military intelligence, around 30,000 troops are expected to take part. Of these, 8,000 will be stationed on Belarusian territory, including 2,000 Russian personnel. By comparison, Zapad-2021 involved approximately 200,000 troops.
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin has said the maneuvers will primarily take place in the Minsk region, away from the borders with NATO countries. However, parts of the exercises will be held near Poland and Lithuania, where two new fortified areas have recently been built on the Belarusian side.
The full operational plan for the drills has not been made public. Moscow claims the exercises will simulate a defensive response to foreign aggression, a standard assertion made ahead of nearly every round of Russian military maneuvers. Ukrainian military analysts have noted that during Zapad-2021, Russian forces practiced airborne landings and deep-penetration raids — the same tactics used in the early weeks of the full-scale invasion.
Additionally, as part of these exercises, troops will rehearse the “planning of the use” of Russian tactical nuclear weapons and the new Oreshnik” intermediate-range missiles, which Moscow has pledged to deploy in Belarus. The drills will not involve live-fire exercises with nuclear weapons, but will focus on decision-making procedures around the movement and potential use of nuclear warheads.
Russia has stationed nuclear weapons in Belarus since 2023. Under a security guarantees agreement signed by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin in December 2024, Russia committed to defending Belarus, including with the use of nuclear arms if necessary.
Zapad-2025 is a scheduled exercise, with preparations having begun as early as January. NATO member states, especially those bordering Russia and Belarus, also began preparing in advance. At the same time as Zapad-2025, they are conducting their own military drills, including TARASSIS, an exercise in the Baltic region involving 11 countries, among them the UK, Norway, and newly joined NATO members Sweden and Finland. Poland and Lithuania are also holding separate exercises in parallel.
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As a result, substantial military forces will be concentrated along NATO countries’ borders with Russia and Belarus throughout September, all maintained at a high level of combat readiness. Poland alone has deployed more than 3,000 troops.
NATO’s exercises are placing particular emphasis on the defense of the Suwałki Gap — a roughly 100-kilometer stretch of land along the Poland-Lithuania border between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad region. It is the only land corridor connecting the Baltic States with the rest of NATO. In the event of a conflict with Russia, this area would become a critical strategic chokepoint, which is why Poland and Lithuania have been steadily fortifying it.
Tensions in the region escalated on the night of September 10, when several dozen Russian drones entered Polish airspace. Polish and Dutch fighter jets were scrambled in response. NATO later stated that it did not consider the incident an attack on the alliance, but rather a navigational error.
Nonetheless, Latvia and Lithuania have announced the closure of their airspace along the eastern border. Poland has fully sealed its border with Belarus for an indefinite period. Polish Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński said the decision was not directly related to the Zapad-2025 exercises, but was prompted by concerns over “provocations in the broader sense.” Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov responded by accusing Western politicians of “turning the European Union into a besieged fortress.”
