‘Bad for Moscow’ Trump appears to be weighing military action in Venezuela. Russia’s far-right pundits have some thoughts.
The U.S. appears to be considering military action against Venezuela — and the Latin American country’s biggest ally, Russia, is watching carefully. Washington’s escalation began in early September, when it carried out a strike on a boat from Venezuela that U.S. President Donald Trump claimed was transporting illegal drugs. It carried out at least five more such strikes in the weeks that followed. Then, on October 15, Trump said he had authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela. All the while, the U.S. military has been building up forces in the Caribbean, prompting Venezuela to launch major military exercises. According to the New York Times, U.S. officials have said the Trump administration’s end goal is regime change. Venezuela is Moscow’s closest ally in Latin America, and several pro-Kremlin news sites have already weighed in on Trump’s intimidation campaign in recent days. Meduza recaps their takes.
‘Beijing will be hit hardest’
In the Kremlin-backed outlet Voennoe Delo (“Military Affairs”), pro-war Russian military analyst Rostislav Ishchenko responded to questions purportedly sent in by readers about the U.S. and Venezuela.
The list of reader questions began with an observation: “Trump ran on the platform that he would ‘end all wars,’ but now he’s provoking war with Venezuela.” They then asked Ishchenko whether Moscow could help Venezuela fend off U.S. aggression and prevent regime change, and what a U.S.–Venezuela war or the fall of Maduro would mean for Russia.
Arguing that the Trump administration’s behavior is aimed at “regaining its ability to manipulate global oil prices,” Ishchenko stated that Russia won’t be able to stop the U.S. if it decides to wage war against Venezuela. But what it can do, he said, is “support Caracas with money, weapons, and political and economic backing, and help break through any potential blockades — provided Maduro’s regime proves stable enough to offer real resistance.”
But there’s another, bigger player involved, Ishchenko added: Beijing. “China has a much stronger interest in keeping the current Venezuelan government in place, because if the U.S. gains the power to dictate oil prices, Beijing will be hit hardest,” he said.
Meanwhile, the consequences for Russia would come later, he argued.
If the U.S. manages to establish firm control over Venezuela, America — Russia’s adversary — grows stronger, while China — Russia’s ally — grows weaker. That shift in the global balance of power would be bad for Moscow. Especially since, after dealing with China, the U.S. would likely try to drive oil prices down in order to slash Russian budget revenues and push Russian products out of global markets.
However, even if the U.S. does carry out regime change in Venezuela, “the fallout isn’t guaranteed,” Ishchenko said. In his view, if Washington were to install a government in the country that proved unstable and unpopular, the U.S. could end up ‘bleeding resources’ trying to prop it up.
According to experts quoted by the New York Times, however, “only a small fraction of the population” of Venezuela would likely mobilize if the U.S. tried to overthrow Maduro.
‘A severe psychopath’
Speaking in an interview summarized by the Kremlin-backed outlet Krasnaya Vesna, far-right politician and pundit Sergey Kurginyan said that Russia is currently engaged in a balancing act: it’s trying to stay friendly with Venezuela, but only to a limited extent, as it still hopes for negotiations with the U.S. on Ukraine.
Kurginyan also said he supports what he sees as Moscow’s current efforts to manipulate Trump and string him along with hints of a possible peace deal:
I think it’s necessary to pull the wool over Trump’s eyes. He’s a severe psychopath — not untalented, mind you, but a serious case. He’s a raging narcissist, completely obsessed with himself. He mixes street-smart business instincts and thuggish pressure tactics with a volatile psyche and enormous energy, something Biden never had.
According to Kurginyan, the fact that Trump has spoken of supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in recent weeks (before his apparent 180 last Friday) shows that a deal with the U.S. isn’t feasible. But the Venezuela tensions, in his view, offer another opportunity:
If we decide to fully arm the Venezuelan military — and Venezuela does have the money, so why shouldn’t we? — then in just two or three years, we could equip them well enough that even U.S. air superiority wouldn’t be guaranteed. We’d also get to test out certain things. And that would only be the start: there are the Oreshniks, and there are other options. Who knows what could be possible.
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