Former NATO Military Committee chair says ‘small Russian attack’ on Estonia wouldn’t trigger immediate armed response by alliance

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s collective defense principle wouldn’t necessarily trigger an immediate armed response in the event of a “small attack” by Russia against a member like Estonia, Admiral Rob Bauer, former Chair of the NATO Military Committee, told the newspaper Die Welt in a June 23 interview. Bauer explained that a small Russian operation that does not threaten a member’s “overall territorial integrity” would leave “time for consultations” to weigh the question: “Do we want to start a war or not?”

Bauer also argued that “Putin doesn't see NATO as an immediate threat,” pointing to Russia’s muted response to Finland joining the alliance and the largely rhetorical nature of the Kremlin’s nuclear threats.

Die Welt asked Bauer if NATO would “immediately move to counterattack” if Russia attacked “a village in Estonia” to test the alliance’s resolve. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, numerous Western military experts have increasingly warned that Moscow may seek to challenge NATO directly. German foreign intelligence chief Bruno Kahl recently warned that “Ukraine is only a step on the journey westward.” In a podcast interview with Table Media, Kahl said that Russian officials are planning confrontations that fall short of a full-scale military engagement. “It’s enough to send little green men to Estonia to protect supposedly oppressed Russian minorities,” he explained.