Closing in As Russian forces advance on two Donbas cities at once, Ukraine stands to lose another key supply route
Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.
Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.
Key updates as of July 18, 2025
The Russian army’s breakthrough between the cities of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, north of Donetsk, is expanding. Russia’s forces are advancing near the Kleban-Bykske Reservoir southwest of Kostiantynivka, forcing Ukrainian troops to withdraw from their remaining positions on the outskirts of Toretsk. At the same time, Russian units are attempting to encircle Pokrovsk from the north. They’ve crossed the Kazennyi Torets River and are approaching the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk road — one of the few remaining supply routes for the garrison in Pokrovsk.
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Toretsk
- After a year of heavy fighting, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) still held Shcherbynivka and Novospaske, two villages on the western outskirts of Toretsk. But a Russian breakthrough from the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka road and from the south toward the village of Oleksandro-Kalynove weakened Ukraine’s defenses on the western edge of the Toretsk agglomeration, allowing Russian forces to begin storming the surrounding worker settlements.
- In early July, Russian troops entered Oleksandro-Kalynove and reached the road running from Toretsk along the western edge of the Kleban-Bykske Reservoir toward Kostiantynivka. This road is one of just two supply routes for the AFU units holding the outskirts of Toretsk.
- In recent days, Russian forces advancing from the south have entered the center of Novospaske. The fate of the Ukrainian garrison in Shcherbynivka, located south of Novospaske, remains unclear. In all likelihood, the soldiers there had to abandon their positions and retreat north.
- At the same time, under pressure from fresh Russian units attacking east of Toretsk (near the village of Dyliivka), Ukrainian forces were also forced to withdraw from the city’s northern outskirts.
- It’s likely that the AFU will soon have to make a full retreat to the reservoir’s northern shore. This would mark the end of the battle for Toretsk and the beginning of the fight for Kostiantynivka.
- By the fall, Russian forces could simultaneously reach Kostiantynivka’s eastern outskirts (via Chasiv Yar and Stupochky), the city’s southern outskirts (from the eastern tip of the reservoir), and its western outskirts (from Yablunivka).
Pokrovsk
- The initial Russian breakthrough from the south across the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka road was aimed toward the latter city — part of the broader offensive on Kostiantynivka. But in recent weeks, Russian forces have increasingly shifted their pressure eastward.
- In early July, Russian troops entered Novoekonomichne, a satellite settlement of Pokrovsk. However, the main thrust came further north. Over the past week, Russian forces have captured several villages north of Novoekonomichne, crossed the Kazennyi Torets River, and are now approaching Rodynske, located on the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka road.
- If Rodynske is captured, the Pokrovsk agglomeration will effectively be cut off from Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, severing its direct link with the forces defending Kostiantynivka. Additionally, Russian troops would be able to push toward Dobropillia, opening up the possibility of a wide flanking maneuver around Kostiantynivka and an approach to Kramatorsk from the southwest.
- It’s still unclear whether the Russian command intends to storm Pokrovsk or encircle it. Over the past year, the city has repeatedly been used as “bait.” Exactly a year ago, Russian forces reached the outskirts of Pokrovsk from the south. Instead of launching an assault, however, they turned further south and went on to seize the entire southern part of Donbas — including Vuhledar, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka, along with surrounding villages.
- A direct assault on Pokrovsk is unlikely to begin until Russian forces — specifically the Vostok contingent, now advancing from the Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka area — reach Novopavlivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region and can launch an offensive northward toward the Dnipro–Pokrovsk highway.
- For now, the Vostok grouping is trying to fully clear Ukrainian forces from the area between the Vovcha and Mokri Yaly rivers — an essential step before they can cross the Vovcha and push toward Novopavlivka. Russian troops do have a foothold on the northern bank of the Vovcha near Dachne, but it’s not enough. The AFU is not giving up this strip of land between the rivers: there are reports of Ukrainian counterattacks on the Vovcha’s southern bank.
Sumy region
Ukrainian forces continue to launch counterattacks on the Russian foothold in the Sumy region, trying to push Russian troops back toward the border, at least along the western section of the Sumy front.
In early July, Ukrainian troops broke into the village of Andriivka in the center of the front, and last week they advanced into Kindrativka on the western flank. Videos published by the Russian side demonstrate the challenges of such counterattacks: the Russian Aerospace Forces are carrying out dozens of strikes with precision-guided glide bombs on advancing Ukrainian units and their immediate rear.
On the eastern flank of the Sumy front, Russian forces are on the offensive. They’ve managed to capture most of the village of Yunakivka along the Sudzha–Sumy road. From there, they will likely try to push toward the town of Khotyn in an attempt to ease Ukrainian pressure on the western flank and the center near Andriivka.
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Meduza’s Razbor (“Explainers”) team