Will Russia invade the E.U.? Meduza’s military analysts answer readers’ biggest questions about the war (part 2)
In October, we asked our Russian-language readers to send in their most pressing questions about the Russia–Ukraine war. We received hundreds of messages in response, and our Explainers team reviewed each one, grouped similar questions by topic, and then selected the most representative ones to answer directly. In part two of this series, our military analysts look at the possibility of Russia expanding the war onto NATO territory.
Read part one of this series, which focuses on Russia’s push to take all of the Donbas region, here.
The risk of Russia expanding its war
“Is there a chance the war could spread to other countries? How big is that risk, and which countries are most vulnerable?” — Alika
“What signs would indicate that Russia is seriously preparing to invade Europe?” — Dmitry
“What’s happening in the [Russian] regions bordering other countries (not Ukraine)? I’m especially curious about the Karelia region, which now borders NATO territory [Finland]. Is [Moscow] building up reserves there? Is it developing new military infrastructure (railways, new units, and so on)? Forming new divisions?” — Artur
In the short term, the likelihood of the war expanding remains low — unless there’s an unexpected escalation. The Russian army is fully tied up in its war against Ukraine. This is especially evident along the Finnish border. In 2023–2024, new formations were created in the Leningrad Military District (including in Karelia), but they were immediately sent to the front. In May 2024, troops from this district took part in the invasion of Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, but the offensive quickly stalled.
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What happens after the war in Ukraine ends will depend on how it ends and on the state of relations between Europe and the U.S., as well as between Washington and Beijing. An open confrontation with Europe still appears far too risky for the Kremlin, especially since U.S. involvement couldn’t be ruled out. That said, Russia’s leadership has a history of overestimating its own strength.
A clear sign that Moscow is preparing for an invasion would be a large-scale concentration of forces along the borders of the Baltic states and Finland — and possibly in Belarus. Another indicator would be a new wave of mobilization (or a refusal to demobilize after the war in Ukraine ends).
Meduza’s Explainers team