‘Putin’s less afraid of war than of peace’: What independent military analysts have to say about the risk of Russia invading the Baltic states
In an interview published Saturday, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Russia could start a war with NATO as early as 2029 — or even sooner, according to some experts. In response, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said there is “no doubt about who the aggressor is,” while Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov added that Russia “may be forced to take measures to ensure its security.”
Meanwhile, several independent Israeli military analysts have suggested that Moscow could attempt to seize territory in the Baltic states as early as next year, aiming to strengthen its negotiating position with the U.S. They identified the Suwałki Corridor — a narrow strip of land between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, connecting Poland and Lithuania — as the region most at risk. The corridor is widely seen as the Baltics’ most vulnerable point, as it is the only land route linking the region to the rest of continental Europe. The media outlet Current Time published a roundup of analyses of the situation from multiple experts. Meduza shares a translation of the report.
“[Russia could carry out] a limited operation with some quick results to put NATO in a very awkward position, and then use this to bargain over the terms of a peace deal in Ukraine,” military analyst Sergey Auslender told Current Time. “Capturing a piece of NATO territory such as the Suwałki corridor, for example, would also solve the problem of supplying Kaliningrad by land.”
The Suwałki corridor, a stretch of land around the Lithuanian-Polish border, is often described as NATO’s Achilles’ heel. Several years ago, Politico called it “the most dangerous place on Earth.” NATO has increased attention on the area and holds regular exercises there, but some analysts remain unconvinced that this is sufficient.
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“There are roughly 10,000 NATO troops stationed in the Baltic states today. That’s not nothing, but it certainly can’t counter a full-scale invasion,” said military analyst Grigory Tamar. “If we’re talking about a ‘special operation,’ these bases could simply be blocked. In such a scenario, it’s hard to imagine NATO forces mounting some kind of heroic breakthrough to defend anyone there. At best, they would be defending themselves.”
Several experts noted that Russia might precede any attack with claims of “protecting Russian speakers.” More than 850,000 ethnic Russians live in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, mostly in border regions near Russia and Belarus.
“First, [they] stage a campaign claiming that Russians are being oppressed in Estonia. Then [they] arrange for an organization representing Russians in Estonia, for example, to write a letter calling for protection. That creates a pretext for an invasion. They wouldn’t wait for a pretext; they would manufacture one,” Auslender said.
Lithuanian military expert and retired Major Darius Antanaitis argued that under current conditions, a new war would be difficult, as the Baltic Sea has effectively become a “NATO lake” since Sweden and Finland joined the Alliance.
“To approach the Lithuanian coast, they wouldn’t rely on Kaliningrad’s naval forces — they’d need the Baltic Fleet, which must sail out of St. Petersburg. And to get out of there, they need to guarantee themselves a safe passage through the Gulf of Finland, which has Finland on one side and Estonia on the other. This means that the war would have to start there. To block us in the Baltic, they would have to occupy the island of Gotland,” Antanaitis said.
General Richard Shirreff, NATO’s former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe, warned that Russia could launch a full-scale war in the Baltics as early as 2027, a concern echoed by Danish intelligence reports. However, former Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas was skeptical about this forecast.
“I wouldn’t necessarily expect it in 2027,” he said. “It all depends on how the war in Ukraine plays out — how long the Ukrainians keep fighting, whether there’s a ceasefire, and if sanctions would be lifted. There are just too many unpredictable factors. For now, the assumption is that Russia couldn’t fight two wars at the same time. That’s a fact. They simply can’t open a second front.”
At the same time, Russian analyst and blogger Dmitry Chernyshev cautioned against underestimating Moscow’s willingness to act aggressively:
Putin’s military economy is running at full capacity; he’s less afraid of war than he is of peace. When the entire pyramid he has built collapses, hundreds of thousands of soldiers will return from the front with weapons, and there will be nothing left to justify the repressions. The Security Council is confident that the Estonians, Lithuanians, and Latvians would not resist in the same way as the Ukrainians. Putin always acts the same way — in a difficult situation, he doubles down to have something to bargain with.
The commander of the Lithuanian Armed Forces, Raimundas Vaikšnoras, said the outcome of the war in Ukraine will likely determine Moscow’s next moves.
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“It’s unlikely that the Russians would attack [right now], since they are deeply bogged down in Ukraine and are most likely committing all the forces they can gather there to patch up their own gaps,” he told Current Time.
NATO allies consistently assure the Baltic states that in the event of an attack, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia will definitely receive support. According to the alliance’s new readiness plans, member countries’ forces are prepared not only to retake territory but to defend the Baltics from the very first minute of a possible attack.
Political analyst Ivan Preobrazhensky cautioned that it’s still unclear exactly how the principle of collective defense would be applied.
“I don’t think Russia currently takes Article Five seriously. On the contrary, it sees increasing opportunities to test NATO’s resilience through hybrid threats — without sending in troops, without attacking anyone, without killing — but by creating a situation of intense pressure that puts sovereignty at risk, while theoretically not violating it directly,” he said.
On the other hand, former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told Current Time earlier this month that the Alliance is already demonstrating in practice, not just in words, that it places a high value on the security of its Baltic members.
One of the most important decisions we made came in 2016, after the illegal annexation of Crimea. For the first time in NATO’s history, combat units — multinational NATO forces — were deployed in all the Baltic states and in Poland. And that sends a very clear signal that NATO, as a whole, is already there. We have also increased the readiness of our forces, their ability to move quickly and reinforce positions, and we have developed a full set of new military plans. All of this sends a very clear message to Russia: an attack on one ally will trigger a response from the entire Alliance.
